Jacopo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Carboni Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• When focusing on second serve performance over the past six months, Berrettini has the upper hand, securing 47.35% of points compared to Carboni's 41.56%. Could this stat heavily influence the match outcome? It's certainly possible given the correlation to match predictions.
• In recent return games, Carboni has a slight edge, with 47.72% of opponent second serve points won, just ahead of Berrettini's 47.55%. However, on first serve returns, Carboni leads even more distinctly at 32.5% compared to Berrettini's 31.14%.
• Analyzing breakpoint saving abilities reveals Berrettini has a stronger defense, saving 60.05% of breakpoints. Meanwhile, Carboni's breakpoint save percentage stands at 53.1%, another crucial aspect under pressure.
• Over the past year, Carboni boasts a higher overall win rate at 64% versus Berrettini's 57.63%, highlighting consistent performance in match outcomes.
• Is surface preference a decisive factor? For Berrettini, clay is beneficial with a 57% win record, whereas Carboni excels on hard courts with 68% success.
• Regarding tournament levels, Carboni has dominated the Futures/Satellites with a 69.35% win rate, compared to Berrettini's lower success rate of 47.62% in higher-tier events.
• Facing tougher opponents, Carboni has tackled players with an average rank of 320.83, offering more challenging competition than Berrettini's average opponent rank of 424.19.
• In deciding set scenarios, Berrettini has proven slightly better, clinching 62% of these tense matches, a small margin over Carboni's 60% success rate.
• Looking at breakpoint conversions, Carboni edges out Berrettini by converting 39.11% of chances, compared to Berrettini's 35.48%, potentially turning the tide during critical moments.

Editorial Prediction (August 26, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Berrettini and Carboni promises to be a compelling clash. When analyzing their recent form, Berrettini demonstrates superiority in key areas like second serve performance and breakpoint defense, which are crucial in tight matches.

Carboni, however, brings consistency with a higher win rate over the past year, indicating a steadier performance. His ability to convert breakpoints and success on hard courts further bolsters his chances against Berrettini.

Despite Berrettini's ability to dig deep in deciding sets, the overall strength and consistency displayed by Carboni on tougher surfaces suggest he has a slight edge.

Based on these insights, Carboni is anticipated to come out on top in this match, leveraging his recent form and conversion efficiency to outmaneuver Berrettini.